Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -600 FOR +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -8.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -7.5 (-3.5) | 153.4 (-17.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LUC -8.9 (-4.9) | 151.7 (-15.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LUC -6.8 (-2.8) | 149.4 (-13.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -6.6 (-2.6) | 150.2 (-14.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FOR 62 – 59 LUC |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LUC 65 – 61 FOR |
| Feb 23, 2023 | FOR 71 – 69 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 3-15 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#160) | -4.9 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#129) | -0.69 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#132) | -0.86 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#145) | 0.468 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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