Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LUC +105 FOR -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -3.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -3.8 (+1.8) | 138.9 (+1.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FOR -1.0 (-1.0) | 138.0 (+2.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | FOR -3.1 (+1.1) | 138.5 (+1.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -3.3 (+1.3) | 138.7 (+1.3) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FOR 62 – 59 LUC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LUC 70 – 66 FOR |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LUC 65 – 61 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-8 | 18-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#261) | 1.4 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#258) | 1.17 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#255) | 1.10 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#287) | 0.558 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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