Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -440 LUC +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -12.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -10.6 (-7.6) | 132.7 (-11.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FOR -8.5 (-5.5) | 133.2 (-12.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | FOR -9.5 (-6.5) | 132.6 (-11.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -9.7 (-6.7) | 132.9 (-11.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2025 | LUC 70 – 66 FOR |
| Jan 20, 2024 | LUC 65 – 61 FOR |
| Feb 23, 2023 | FOR 71 – 69 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#160) | -9.2 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#213) | -1.56 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#193) | -2.16 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#200) | 0.428 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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