Betting Lines
| Spread | UNH -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +163 UNH -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNH +6 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | UNH -4.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.1 (-47.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNH -3.9 (-2.1) | 157.0 (-35.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNH -5.0 (-1.0) | 155.7 (-33.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNH -4.7 (-1.3) | 156.5 (-34.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNH -5.4 (-0.6) | 158.9 (-36.9) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#311) | -0.7 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#342) | 0.39 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.92 (#339) | 0.19 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.373 (#351) | 0.529 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.