Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -213 ISU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -2.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -0.3 (-1.3) | 146.7 (-1.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -1.0 (-2.0) | 144.2 (+0.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -1.1 (-2.1) | 144.9 (+0.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -0.6 (-1.6) | 145.6 (-0.6) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | TCU 62 – 55 ISU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ISU 82 – 52 TCU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ISU 71 – 59 TCU |
| Feb 16, 2023 | ISU 70 – 59 TCU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ISU 69 – 67 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 18-0 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 61.5 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#23) | 19.9 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#32) | 1.72 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#36) | 2.28 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#72) | 0.562 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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