Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -350 TCU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -9.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -8.8 (+3.2) | 149.6 (-19.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -8.1 (+3.9) | 148.3 (-18.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -8.2 (+3.8) | 150.4 (-20.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -7.4 (+4.6) | 148.3 (-18.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | TCU 62 – 55 ISU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ISU 82 – 52 TCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ISU 73 – 72 TCU |
| Feb 16, 2023 | ISU 70 – 59 TCU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ISU 69 – 67 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 18-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#7) | 13.4 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#19) | 2.03 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#23) | 2.37 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#29) | 0.563 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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