Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -2500 TCU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +30 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -13.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -12.4 (+17.6) | 140.5 (-6.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -12.2 (+17.8) | 137.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -12.2 (+17.8) | 139.3 (-5.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -11.7 (+18.3) | 139.0 (-5.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | TCU 62 – 55 ISU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ISU 71 – 59 TCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ISU 73 – 72 TCU |
| Feb 16, 2023 | ISU 70 – 59 TCU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ISU 69 – 67 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#13) | 8.8 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#13) | 1.44 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#26) | 1.56 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#28) | 0.556 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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