Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -250 TCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -4.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -4.2 (+6.8) | 135.7 (-6.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -4.1 (+6.9) | 133.8 (-4.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -3.5 (+7.5) | 133.8 (-4.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -3.5 (+7.5) | 135.1 (-6.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | TCU 62 – 55 ISU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ISU 82 – 52 TCU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ISU 71 – 59 TCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ISU 73 – 72 TCU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ISU 69 – 67 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#15) | 13.5 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#21) | 2.24 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#20) | 3.12 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#41) | 0.563 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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