Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UND -110 DEN +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +14 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -6.8 (+20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -4.6 (+18.6) | 157.2 (+12.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -4.8 (+18.8) | 158.3 (+11.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -5.3 (+19.3) | 157.8 (+12.2) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -4.7 (+18.7) | 158.3 (+11.7) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 82.1 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#295) | 2.7 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#260) | 0.03 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#263) | 0.14 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#288) | 0.495 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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