Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | USU -1400 FRES +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +21 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USU -20.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -18.5 (+2.5) | 143.7 (+1.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -15.5 (+5.5) | 145.7 (-0.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -17.2 (+3.8) | 146.3 (-1.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -16.9 (+4.1) | 144.8 (+0.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#30) | -3.9 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#9) | -0.43 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#18) | -0.51 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#5) | 0.475 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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