Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +850 USU -1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +9 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -11.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.3 (+2.3) | 144.3 (-9.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -12.0 (+3.0) | 145.4 (-10.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -12.1 (+3.1) | 145.6 (-10.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -11.6 (+2.6) | 145.4 (-10.4) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
| Feb 28, 2024 | USU 77 – 73 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#167) | 16.4 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#191) | 2.65 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#190) | 3.31 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#226) | 0.650 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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