Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +700 USU -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +8 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -15.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -15.4 (+7.4) | 154.0 (+16.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -13.9 (+5.9) | 154.2 (+15.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -14.8 (+6.8) | 155.8 (+14.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -15.3 (+7.3) | 155.2 (+14.8) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
| Feb 28, 2024 | USU 77 – 73 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 15-5 |
| Home | 5-9 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-14 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#270) | 12.1 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#319) | 2.76 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#308) | 3.34 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#326) | 0.615 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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