Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USU -1000 FRES +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +12 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | USU -15.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -15.8 (-3.8) | 144.2 (+17.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -14.9 (-2.9) | 143.1 (+18.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -15.2 (-3.2) | 143.3 (+18.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -14.8 (-2.8) | 144.1 (+17.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Feb 28, 2024 | USU 77 – 73 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#45) | -3.5 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#7) | -0.22 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#23) | -0.33 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#6) | 0.476 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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