Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +450 USU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +4 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -11.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -12.2 (+8.2) | 141.1 (+8.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.8 (+7.8) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -10.4 (+6.4) | 141.1 (+8.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -10.9 (+6.9) | 140.4 (+9.6) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#219) | 11.8 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#200) | 2.66 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#186) | 2.77 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#225) | 0.625 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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