Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | USU -20000 FRES +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +6 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | USU -25.2 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -20.5 (-14.5) | 156.1 (+15.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -21.0 (-15.0) | 157.9 (+14.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -19.5 (-13.5) | 153.5 (+18.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -20.9 (-14.9) | 153.8 (+18.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
| Feb 28, 2024 | USU 77 – 73 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#32) | -6.7 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.92 (#4) | -1.24 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.15 (#6) | -1.67 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#7) | 0.436 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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