Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | USU -3200 FRES +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +13 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | USU -17.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -17.0 (-4.0) | 146.5 (+22.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -19.7 (-6.7) | 144.6 (+24.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -16.1 (-3.1) | 144.5 (+24.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -16.3 (-3.3) | 146.1 (+22.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
| Feb 28, 2024 | USU 77 – 73 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#29) | 2.1 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#31) | 0.09 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#33) | 0.28 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#17) | 0.496 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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