Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | RAD -400 UPST +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +3 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -10.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -7.5 (-4.5) | 142.3 (-17.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -7.6 (-4.6) | 142.6 (-17.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -7.1 (-4.1) | 143.2 (-18.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -8.2 (-5.2) | 143.9 (-18.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#192) | -7.9 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#154) | -1.31 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#150) | -1.91 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#155) | 0.440 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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