Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -154 COFC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -4.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -1.7 (+7.3) | 154.7 (-7.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.6 (+6.4) | 151.6 (-4.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.1 (+5.9) | 153.9 (-6.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -3.1 (+5.9) | 152.8 (-5.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#121) | 2.6 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#90) | 0.95 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#97) | 1.20 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#64) | 0.557 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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