Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | TENN -225 ALA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +20 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -0.6 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -3.5 (+16.5) | 163.2 (-1.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -3.3 (+16.7) | 159.0 (+3.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -2.9 (+17.1) | 159.6 (+2.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -3.8 (+16.2) | 156.5 (+5.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALA 71 – 69 TENN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | TENN 79 – 73 ALA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TENN 79 – 76 ALA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | TENN 81 – 74 ALA |
| Feb 16, 2023 | TENN 68 – 59 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#9) | 20.9 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#4) | 2.11 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#5) | 2.81 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#2) | 0.622 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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