Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -192 TENN +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +6 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -5.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -6.0 (-12.0) | 164.6 (-12.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -5.5 (-11.5) | 165.0 (-13.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -6.6 (-12.6) | 161.7 (-9.7) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -7.2 (-13.2) | 161.3 (-9.3) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALA 71 – 69 TENN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TENN 79 – 76 ALA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | TENN 81 – 74 ALA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TENN 91 – 71 ALA |
| Feb 16, 2023 | TENN 68 – 59 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#16) | 17.5 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#17) | 2.22 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#17) | 3.34 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#11) | 0.576 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 42.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 44.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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