Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 173.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -188 TENN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +7 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -4.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.7 (-9.7) | 163.2 (-8.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.0 (-11.0) | 166.3 (-11.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.2 (-10.2) | 166.2 (-11.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -4.1 (-11.1) | 165.4 (-10.4) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALA 71 – 69 TENN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | TENN 79 – 73 ALA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TENN 79 – 76 ALA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TENN 91 – 71 ALA |
| Feb 16, 2023 | TENN 68 – 59 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#4) | 19.5 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#11) | 2.93 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#9) | 3.69 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#5) | 0.643 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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