Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | TENN -188 ALA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -2.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -1.9 (+7.1) | 143.8 (-16.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -3.8 (+5.2) | 139.7 (-12.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -2.5 (+6.5) | 142.7 (-15.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -1.7 (+7.3) | 142.6 (-15.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ALA 71 – 69 TENN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | TENN 79 – 73 ALA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TENN 79 – 76 ALA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | TENN 81 – 74 ALA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TENN 91 – 71 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#3) | 20.9 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#17) | 3.71 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#14) | 4.25 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#17) | 0.676 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 44.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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