Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | USM +130 TROY -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +1 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -2.1 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.8 (+2.8) | 144.4 (-17.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -2.3 (+3.3) | 144.0 (-17.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.4 (+3.4) | 145.7 (-18.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.0 (+3.0) | 145.8 (-18.8) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TROY 78 – 70 USM |
| Feb 15, 2026 | USM 69 – 65 TROY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TROY 91 – 65 USM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TROY 70 – 58 USM |
| Jan 27, 2025 | TROY 70 – 61 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#260) | 1.1 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#173) | -0.05 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#205) | 0.23 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#167) | 0.508 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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