Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | USM +380 TROY -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +12 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -8.3 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -7.9 (-4.1) | 141.7 (-13.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -8.8 (-3.2) | 139.1 (-11.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -7.9 (-4.1) | 139.7 (-11.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -7.5 (-4.5) | 143.0 (-15.0) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TROY 78 – 70 USM |
| Feb 15, 2026 | USM 69 – 65 TROY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TROY 91 – 65 USM |
| Jan 27, 2025 | TROY 70 – 61 USM |
| Jan 20, 2024 | USM 64 – 63 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#295) | 3.4 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#307) | 0.38 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#303) | 0.54 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#308) | 0.534 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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