Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | USM +180 TROY -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -3.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.4 (+5.4) | 143.5 (-9.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -3.8 (+7.8) | 145.6 (-11.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.0 (+6.0) | 146.3 (-12.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.0 (+6.0) | 143.4 (-9.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TROY 78 – 70 USM |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TROY 91 – 65 USM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TROY 70 – 58 USM |
| Jan 27, 2025 | TROY 70 – 61 USM |
| Jan 20, 2024 | USM 64 – 63 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#242) | 1.6 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#222) | 0.64 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#230) | 0.30 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#202) | 0.557 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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