Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -455 USM +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +26 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -7.0 (+19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -5.5 (+20.5) | 150.4 (+5.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TROY -7.7 (+18.3) | 151.7 (+4.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TROY -5.3 (+20.7) | 148.4 (+7.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.6 (+20.4) | 148.8 (+7.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TROY 78 – 70 USM |
| Feb 15, 2026 | USM 69 – 65 TROY |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TROY 70 – 58 USM |
| Jan 27, 2025 | TROY 70 – 61 USM |
| Jan 20, 2024 | USM 64 – 63 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#142) | -2.0 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#93) | -0.11 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#127) | -0.11 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#55) | 0.523 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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