Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -258 USM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -4.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.2 (+5.8) | 145.3 (+2.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -4.2 (+3.8) | 145.4 (+2.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.5 (+5.5) | 143.8 (+4.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.6 (+5.4) | 144.4 (+3.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | USM 69 – 65 TROY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TROY 91 – 65 USM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TROY 70 – 58 USM |
| Jan 27, 2025 | TROY 70 – 61 USM |
| Jan 20, 2024 | USM 64 – 63 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#157) | -3.5 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#123) | -0.12 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#152) | -0.34 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#80) | 0.508 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.