Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -800 USM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -13.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -10.4 (-1.4) | 141.4 (-10.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -11.2 (-2.2) | 140.7 (-9.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -10.6 (-1.6) | 139.7 (-8.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -11.0 (-2.0) | 141.7 (-10.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TROY 78 – 70 USM |
| Feb 15, 2026 | USM 69 – 65 TROY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TROY 91 – 65 USM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TROY 70 – 58 USM |
| Jan 20, 2024 | USM 64 – 63 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#107) | -6.5 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#133) | -0.92 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#114) | -1.31 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#122) | 0.443 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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