Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -200 VT +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -3.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -3.2 (-9.2) | 140.5 (+21.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -4.2 (-10.2) | 142.9 (+19.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -4.1 (-10.1) | 142.9 (+19.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -3.5 (-9.5) | 143.7 (+18.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 73 VT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | VT 79 – 76 NCSU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | NCSU 97 – 77 VT |
| Jan 8, 2023 | NCSU 73 – 69 VT |
| Jan 20, 2022 | VT 62 – 59 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#70) | 8.7 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#35) | 1.34 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#37) | 1.88 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#73) | 0.571 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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