Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | VT +100 NCSU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -1.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -0.4 (+3.4) | 133.3 (+21.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -1.5 (+4.5) | 134.8 (+20.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -2.2 (+5.2) | 135.2 (+19.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -2.0 (+5.0) | 135.4 (+19.6) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 73 VT |
| Jan 20, 2024 | VT 84 – 78 NCSU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | NCSU 97 – 77 VT |
| Jan 8, 2023 | NCSU 73 – 69 VT |
| Jan 20, 2022 | VT 62 – 59 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-9 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#156) | 5.6 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#192) | 0.42 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#201) | 0.82 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#198) | 0.497 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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