Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +3 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -5.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -3.6 (+0.6) | 140.4 (-19.4) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -3.7 (+0.7) | 138.0 (-17.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -3.6 (+0.6) | 141.3 (-20.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -4.0 (+1.0) | 141.4 (-20.4) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 73 VT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | VT 79 – 76 NCSU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | VT 84 – 78 NCSU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | NCSU 97 – 77 VT |
| Jan 8, 2023 | NCSU 73 – 69 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-10 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#124) | 11.8 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#152) | 0.88 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#135) | 1.50 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#167) | 0.535 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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