Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -145 VT +122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +20 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -2.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -2.5 (+17.5) | 143.1 (+30.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -3.6 (+16.4) | 146.7 (+27.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -3.1 (+16.9) | 146.1 (+27.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -2.8 (+17.2) | 146.8 (+27.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NCSU 82 – 73 VT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | VT 79 – 76 NCSU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | VT 84 – 78 NCSU |
| Jan 8, 2023 | NCSU 73 – 69 VT |
| Jan 20, 2022 | VT 62 – 59 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#44) | 7.7 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#34) | 1.31 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#38) | 1.71 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#56) | 0.546 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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