Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -1200 VAN +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +13 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -18.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -15.2 (-2.2) | 137.9 (-14.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -13.4 (-0.4) | 137.3 (-14.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -14.6 (-1.6) | 136.3 (-13.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -14.8 (-1.8) | 136.7 (-13.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | VAN 88 – 56 MSST |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MSST 76 – 64 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2023 | VAN 77 – 72 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MSST 74 – 69 VAN |
| Feb 13, 2021 | VAN 72 – 51 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-10 |
| Away | 2-8 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#36) | -2.7 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#40) | -1.00 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#27) | -1.20 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#34) | 0.470 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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