Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -0.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -1.0 (+4.0) | 134.0 (+15.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -0.9 (+4.1) | 133.6 (+15.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -0.9 (+4.1) | 133.2 (+15.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -0.9 (+4.1) | 134.7 (+14.3) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | VAN 88 – 56 MSST |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MSST 76 – 64 VAN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSST 68 – 55 VAN |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MSST 74 – 69 VAN |
| Feb 13, 2021 | VAN 72 – 51 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#88) | 10.1 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#60) | 1.83 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#72) | 2.26 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#48) | 0.562 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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