Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | VAN +110 MSST -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +12 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -1.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -0.2 (-12.2) | 150.9 (-10.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -0.6 (-12.6) | 153.3 (-13.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -2.1 (-14.1) | 151.4 (-11.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -0.8 (-12.8) | 154.6 (-14.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | VAN 88 – 56 MSST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSST 68 – 55 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2023 | VAN 77 – 72 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MSST 74 – 69 VAN |
| Feb 13, 2021 | VAN 72 – 51 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#31) | 17.3 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#32) | 3.83 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#37) | 4.97 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#63) | 0.627 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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