Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | MSST +275 VAN -345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +32 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -10.6 (-21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -5.7 (-26.3) | 158.0 (-14.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -7.6 (-24.4) | 156.3 (-12.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -7.6 (-24.4) | 155.6 (-11.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -8.7 (-23.3) | 158.5 (-14.5) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2025 | MSST 76 – 64 VAN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSST 68 – 55 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2023 | VAN 77 – 72 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MSST 74 – 69 VAN |
| Feb 13, 2021 | VAN 72 – 51 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#99) | 19.6 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#94) | 3.33 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#90) | 4.38 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#117) | 0.644 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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