Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -300 VAN +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +21 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -8.6 (-29.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -9.0 (-30.0) | 141.0 (-18.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.8 (-27.8) | 138.0 (-15.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -9.0 (-30.0) | 143.3 (-20.3) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -8.7 (-29.7) | 143.6 (-20.6) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | VAN 88 – 56 MSST |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MSST 76 – 64 VAN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | MSST 68 – 55 VAN |
| Mar 5, 2023 | VAN 77 – 72 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | MSST 74 – 69 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-13 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-4 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#75) | 1.7 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#99) | -0.40 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#83) | -0.02 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#132) | 0.438 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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