Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | BC +225 UNC -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +10 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -7.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -6.2 (-3.8) | 153.1 (-11.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -7.0 (-3.0) | 151.4 (-9.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.9 (-3.1) | 149.7 (-7.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.2 (-3.8) | 148.7 (-6.7) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNC 102 – 96 BC |
| Mar 9, 2023 | UNC 85 – 61 BC |
| Jan 18, 2023 | UNC 72 – 64 BC |
| Jan 27, 2022 | UNC 58 – 47 BC |
| Jan 2, 2022 | UNC 91 – 65 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#88) | 18.2 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#83) | 3.11 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#81) | 4.14 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#85) | 0.644 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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