Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -6000 BC +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +6 | 198 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -21.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (+42.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -17.4 (-11.4) | 148.4 (+49.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -15.5 (-9.5) | 148.9 (+49.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -16.3 (-10.3) | 146.6 (+51.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -18.8 (-12.8) | 146.4 (+51.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2024 | UNC 76 – 66 BC |
| Mar 9, 2023 | UNC 85 – 61 BC |
| Jan 18, 2023 | UNC 72 – 64 BC |
| Jan 27, 2022 | UNC 58 – 47 BC |
| Jan 2, 2022 | UNC 91 – 65 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#34) | -4.2 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#44) | -0.36 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#37) | -0.61 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#24) | 0.465 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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