I'm going to Wichita, far from this opera for evermore. "Seven Nation Army" - The White Stripes
Atlantic Coast Conference · Dean E. Smith Center · January 25, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -19.5 Away covered
O/U 149.5 Over
Money UNC -6000 / BC +1800
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual UNC +6 198 Won
Massey UNC -21.6 (-15.6)
Massey Totals 155.2 (+42.8)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -17.4 (-11.4) 148.4 (+49.6) 90%
Efficiency Plus ML UNC -15.5 (-9.5) 148.9 (+49.1) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -16.3 (-10.3) 146.6 (+51.4) 90%
Baseline ML UNC -18.8 (-12.8) 146.4 (+51.6) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 20, 2024 UNC 7666 BC
Mar 9, 2023 UNC 8561 BC
Jan 18, 2023 UNC 7264 BC
Jan 27, 2022 UNC 5847 BC
Jan 2, 2022 UNC 9165 BC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC BC
Overall 23-14 12-19
Conference 13-7 4-16
Home 12-3 9-8
Away 6-6 0-10
Neutral 5-5 3-1
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 80.7 70.4
Avg Pts Against 74.7 75.8
Massey 14.0 (#34) -4.2 (#232)
Bradley-Terry 2.10 (#44) -0.36 (#212)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.88 (#37) -0.61 (#216)
RPI 0.619 (#24) 0.465 (#236)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC BC
FG% 46.6% 43.4%
3PT% 32.1% 34.2%
REB / G 37.9 34.9
OREB / G 9.4 10.9
AST / TO 1.30 0.90
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 48.7%
TOV% 14.9% 18.1%
ORB% 27.2% 31.5%
FT Rate 26.8% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.7% 52.6%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 15.4%
DRB% 71.9% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 22.2% 26.7%

Game Analysis

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