Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
Atlantic Coast Conference · Conte Forum · January 2, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -8.0 Away covered
O/U 139.0 Over
Money BC +270 / UNC -340
Model Predictions
Spread Total BC win
Actual UNC +26 156 Lost
Massey UNC -2.1 (-23.9)
Massey Totals 141.5 (+14.5)
Bradley-Terry 17%
Weighted B-T 14%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -3.4 (-22.6) 139.2 (+16.8) 37%
Efficiency Plus ML UNC -2.5 (-23.5) 139.0 (+17.0) 37%
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -2.6 (-23.4) 140.4 (+15.6) 42%
Baseline ML UNC -2.0 (-24.0) 141.4 (+14.6) 37%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 25, 2025 UNC 10296 BC
Jan 20, 2024 UNC 7666 BC
Mar 9, 2023 UNC 8561 BC
Jan 18, 2023 UNC 7264 BC
Jan 27, 2022 UNC 5847 BC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BC UNC
Overall 13-20 29-10
Conference 6-14 15-5
Home 9-7 15-2
Away 2-10 8-3
Neutral 2-3 6-5
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.9 77.9
Avg Pts Against 68.1 71.3
Massey 2.6 (#123) 9.0 (#53)
Bradley-Terry -0.43 (#218) 1.88 (#51)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.12 (#184) 2.54 (#47)
RPI 0.443 (#269) 0.602 (#34)
Shooting & Four Factors BC UNC
FG% 44.1% 47.8%
3PT% 35.3% 39.2%
REB / G 36.6 39.9
OREB / G 11.5 10.0
AST / TO 0.99 1.16
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.0% 54.2%
TOV% 18.4% 17.8%
ORB% 33.9% 30.1%
FT Rate 25.1% 24.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 49.2%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 14.1%
DRB% 79.3% 78.7%
Opp FT Rate 17.5% 13.1%

Game Analysis

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