Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Atlantic Coast Conference · Dean E. Smith Center · January 27, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -13.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money UNC -1100 / BC +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual UNC +11 105 Won
Massey UNC -12.5 (-1.5)
Massey Totals 146.9 (-41.9)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 95%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -10.9 (+0.1) 145.6 (-40.6) 84%
Efficiency Plus ML UNC -12.9 (-1.9) 143.2 (-38.2) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -10.9 (+0.1) 146.4 (-41.4) 87%
Baseline ML UNC -11.2 (-0.2) 145.4 (-40.4) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 25, 2025 UNC 10296 BC
Jan 20, 2024 UNC 7666 BC
Mar 9, 2023 UNC 8561 BC
Jan 18, 2023 UNC 7264 BC
Jan 2, 2022 UNC 9165 BC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC BC
Overall 29-10 13-20
Conference 15-5 6-14
Home 15-2 9-7
Away 8-3 2-10
Neutral 6-5 2-3
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.9 66.9
Avg Pts Against 71.3 68.1
Massey 9.7 (#49) 0.6 (#152)
Bradley-Terry 1.76 (#59) -0.37 (#205)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.20 (#57) -0.15 (#186)
RPI 0.602 (#35) 0.454 (#255)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC BC
FG% 45.7% 41.4%
3PT% 37.1% 32.4%
REB / G 40.8 35.9
OREB / G 10.9 11.9
AST / TO 1.21 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.2% 46.3%
TOV% 17.0% 17.4%
ORB% 31.0% 32.1%
FT Rate 22.9% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.2% 52.5%
Opp TOV% 13.1% 18.8%
DRB% 80.6% 77.3%
Opp FT Rate 14.9% 21.3%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.