Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | AF +400 UNM -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +19 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -13.6 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -11.8 (-7.2) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -13.1 (-5.9) | 142.1 (+8.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -12.4 (-6.6) | 144.1 (+6.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -12.6 (-6.4) | 144.6 (+6.4) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 4-12 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#229) | 14.0 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#256) | 2.44 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#249) | 2.86 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#262) | 0.644 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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