Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | SFPA -195 LIU +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -5.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -4.0 (+2.0) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -2.8 (+3.2) | 138.7 (-0.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -3.2 (+2.8) | 138.9 (-0.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -3.2 (+2.8) | 139.4 (-1.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LIU 91 – 89 SFPA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | LIU 67 – 63 SFPA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SFPA 71 – 68 LIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SFPA 74 – 64 LIU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LIU 64 – 51 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 6-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 5-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -13.4 (#342) | -15.2 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#343) | -1.83 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.68 (#355) | -2.44 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.376 (#350) | 0.399 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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