Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | GRAM +100 SOU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -3.8 (+20.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -1.9 (+18.9) | 136.9 (+4.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.3 (+20.3) | 134.7 (+6.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -3.0 (+20.0) | 136.3 (+4.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -2.9 (+19.9) | 136.3 (+4.7) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SOU 87 – 73 GRAM |
| Jan 17, 2026 | SOU 71 – 53 GRAM |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GRAM 65 – 62 SOU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SOU 71 – 64 GRAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | SOU 67 – 60 GRAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#320) | -2.7 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#308) | 0.19 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#287) | 0.09 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#265) | 0.511 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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