Anger is an energy. "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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84–40 on winners spread MAE 8.2 124 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
St. Bonaventure @ Dayton +7.8 137.0 80% 71–76 ✓
Ohio State @ Iowa +5.2 153.1 73% 77–79 ✓
Cornell @ Dartmouth -14.2 143.3 13% 56–53 ✓
Siena @ Rider +10.6 135.2 87% 50–91 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan -6.9 146.3 24% 77–71 ✓
Niagara @ Saint Peter's +5.9 136.1 68% 68–59 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist +3.1 131.6 66% 76–58 ✗
Fairfield @ Iona +2.9 145.6 63% 82–91 ✓
Princeton @ Yale +1.2 142.5 57% 64–70 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +3.6 146.0 70% 59–62 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Brown -0.0 144.8 50% 61–70 ✗
Butler @ Creighton +8.0 152.2 81% 99–98 ✗
Toledo @ Akron +6.0 144.3 69% 70–77 ✓
San José State @ Nevada +13.1 143.0 87% 60–90 ✓
UConn @ St. John's -2.7 141.4 42% 77–64 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Miami +3.1 146.3 69% 74–82 ✓
Penn State @ Indiana +4.0 148.1 68% 85–71 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +11.1 131.4 86% 64–88 ✓
Arkansas @ LSU +5.1 150.8 72% 74–95 ✓
George Mason @ Massachusetts +4.4 147.2 67% 65–66 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -4.6 146.5 34% 88–82 ✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island -4.2 142.0 31% 85–71 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +10.2 153.9 81% 63–65 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +0.7 132.8 50% 71–72 ✓
South Carolina @ Georgia +0.9 137.3 42% 72–62 ✗
Ball State @ Western Michigan -0.1 145.3 49% 77–67 ✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy -8.1 149.5 23% 75–67 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +6.2 150.5 77% 71–83 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State +1.5 135.6 57% 70–62 ✗
Marquette @ Georgetown -10.6 150.5 18% 91–57 ✓
Texas @ TCU +5.6 153.9 74% 77–66 ✗
Virginia @ Clemson +5.4 132.3 57% 66–65 ✗
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State -1.0 137.2 46% 72–75 ✗
East Carolina @ Charlotte +8.6 128.6 78% 52–67 ✓
Southern Illinois @ UIC -2.4 135.1 42% 74–71 ✓
Murray State @ Northern Iowa +5.6 137.4 72% 71–43 ✗
Belmont @ Missouri State +4.4 150.4 69% 80–87 ✓
Bradley @ Illinois State -7.0 133.9 27% 73–60 ✓
Winthrop @ UNC Asheville +1.3 147.9 63% 78–82 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern -4.9 136.6 34% 77–83 ✗
Monmouth @ Delaware +4.6 143.5 69% 80–84 ✓
Charleston @ William & Mary -8.4 151.7 21% 84–83 ✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota +0.5 144.2 56% 66–75 ✓
Le Moyne @ Sacred Heart +1.9 148.5 64% 81–87 ✓
Wagner @ Stonehill -5.1 127.0 37% 61–71 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Ohio +5.0 145.7 72% 69–78 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +10.9 142.1 86% 69–90 ✓
Binghamton @ Vermont +12.2 134.4 87% 49–62 ✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International -3.9 147.6 34% 61–68 ✗
Fordham @ Saint Louis -0.2 145.0 45% 67–65 ✓
California @ Arizona State +3.6 145.8 69% 81–66 ✗
Rice @ UTSA -0.3 156.5 44% 80–76 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack +4.1 130.8 69% 68–71 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern -11.6 146.4 16% 85–84 ✓
Bryant @ Maine -0.2 139.9 45% 72–79 ✗
Utah State @ San Diego State +2.8 147.1 73% 67–81 ✓
Missouri @ Vanderbilt -2.6 137.4 44% 61–68 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +8.3 148.3 82% 80–95 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State +5.8 136.7 66% 79–68 ✗
Houston @ Kansas -1.5 131.8 43% 65–78 ✗
Oklahoma @ UCF -0.4 134.6 51% 63–74 ✗
Hampton @ Howard +7.4 149.3 78% 63–61 ✗
Evansville @ Valparaiso -0.7 141.1 46% 63–62 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -2.7 138.1 43% 69–78 ✗
Elon @ North Carolina A&T +0.8 148.7 46% 69–65 ✗
Rutgers @ Michigan +3.4 139.1 66% 69–59 ✗
Florida @ Texas A&M +1.0 154.8 61% 66–67 ✓
Richmond @ VCU +1.4 134.1 60% 52–63 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +2.2 135.9 57% 66–75 ✓
Air Force @ Boise State +13.5 137.6 86% 56–94 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois +6.1 144.1 77% 66–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford -1.7 149.1 45% 86–88 ✗
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +3.7 134.6 70% 60–62 ✓
Old Dominion @ James Madison +18.4 154.4 89% 63–78 ✓
Troy @ Georgia State -1.5 149.1 44% 78–74 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall +8.6 149.2 83% 74–91 ✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University +4.1 150.0 70% 75–85 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Valley -6.5 140.2 28% 86–67 ✓
Idaho State @ Northern Arizona +1.4 140.2 56% 81–79 ✗
Morgan State @ South Carolina State +5.5 150.1 65% 72–70 ✗
Southern @ Alcorn State -2.4 145.7 41% 71–70 ✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +7.5 134.2 79% 64–65 ✓
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +11.8 128.0 87% 46–77 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State -0.4 139.6 46% 57–70 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech -11.7 133.6 15% 67–60 ✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls +10.5 150.0 86% 73–83 ✓
Samford @ Chattanooga +1.6 157.4 53% 78–56 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +8.2 137.7 80% 74–79 ✓
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +1.0 143.1 48% 90–79 ✗
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois +0.0 140.5 44% 71–47 ✗
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +2.9 143.4 70% 71–79 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota +3.7 149.8 71% 58–60 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana -10.6 136.7 17% 74–77 ✗
Stetson @ Central Arkansas -6.8 151.4 31% 73–62 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State -6.6 130.3 25% 76–55 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +2.7 152.4 63% 68–73 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M +0.1 148.1 51% 61–73 ✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland +1.7 138.0 50% 70–67 ✗
Jacksonville @ Lipscomb +9.1 149.6 84% 82–84 ✓
Central Michigan @ Bowling Green +4.4 139.6 67% 77–76 ✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +7.3 148.1 79% 89–73 ✗
Incarnate Word @ New Orleans +0.1 155.0 49% 82–80 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +1.4 159.2 64% 86–76 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Tarleton State +1.3 142.5 61% 64–75 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech -2.4 146.4 44% 87–66 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State +0.8 135.0 54% 55–60 ✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay +1.7 146.1 58% 91–95 ✓
Georgia Tech @ NC State +7.0 145.9 75% 76–82 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +8.0 132.3 78% 54–63 ✓
Cincinnati @ Texas Tech +3.6 140.7 69% 75–72 ✗
Auburn @ Ole Miss -2.9 145.1 41% 91–77 ✓
Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic +13.4 156.6 87% 70–102 ✓
BYU @ West Virginia -12.4 146.4 15% 86–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Army -0.7 123.3 38% 64–56 ✓
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh +10.9 130.9 85% 60–70 ✓
South Florida @ North Texas +4.3 130.2 62% 60–55 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State +5.8 155.4 72% 67–75 ✓
Towson @ Hofstra +2.0 134.9 59% 56–59 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth -4.8 135.8 31% 72–56 ✓
Princeton @ Brown -10.9 140.0 18% 70–60 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -7.9 131.0 21% 59–52 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina +6.9 150.0 77% 84–93 ✓
Northeastern @ Stony Brook +4.2 144.7 72% 55–59 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M +0.2 137.6 44% 80–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.