Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ASU -138 CAL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +15 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -3.8 (-18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -4.8 (-19.8) | 146.8 (+0.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -3.2 (-18.2) | 144.7 (+2.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -3.6 (-18.6) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -3.2 (-18.2) | 147.2 (-0.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2024 | ASU 71 – 69 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2023 | ASU 70 – 62 CAL |
| Mar 4, 2022 | ASU 71 – 44 CAL |
| Jan 3, 2022 | CAL 74 – 50 ASU |
| Jan 29, 2021 | ASU 72 – 68 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#123) | 2.8 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#104) | 0.04 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#109) | 0.46 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#101) | 0.492 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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