Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -175 ASU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -1.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -1.2 (-3.2) | 146.6 (-6.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -0.6 (-2.6) | 145.3 (-5.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -0.2 (-2.2) | 147.3 (-7.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -0.7 (-2.7) | 150.0 (-10.0) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | CAL 81 – 66 ASU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | ASU 70 – 62 CAL |
| Mar 4, 2022 | ASU 71 – 44 CAL |
| Jan 3, 2022 | CAL 74 – 50 ASU |
| Jan 29, 2021 | ASU 72 – 68 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#187) | 1.8 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#276) | 1.12 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#252) | 1.44 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#242) | 0.577 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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