Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +27 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -4.7 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -5.2 (+21.8) | 132.6 (-17.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -5.9 (+21.1) | 129.9 (-14.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -5.7 (+21.3) | 132.5 (-17.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -5.9 (+21.1) | 133.5 (-18.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | CAL 81 – 66 ASU |
| Jan 1, 2024 | ASU 71 – 69 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2023 | ASU 70 – 62 CAL |
| Jan 3, 2022 | CAL 74 – 50 ASU |
| Jan 29, 2021 | ASU 72 – 68 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#104) | 3.0 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#96) | 0.29 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#98) | 0.64 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#97) | 0.480 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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