Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ASU -333 CAL +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -6.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -4.1 (-0.1) | 141.4 (-1.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -5.0 (-1.0) | 145.5 (-5.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -4.9 (-0.9) | 145.3 (-5.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -4.9 (-0.9) | 143.0 (-3.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | CAL 81 – 66 ASU |
| Jan 1, 2024 | ASU 71 – 69 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2023 | ASU 70 – 62 CAL |
| Mar 4, 2022 | ASU 71 – 44 CAL |
| Jan 3, 2022 | CAL 74 – 50 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-6 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#111) | 0.3 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#159) | 0.02 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#146) | 0.10 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#143) | 0.480 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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