We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Pac-12 Conference · Haas Pavilion · February 12, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ASU -9.5 Home covered
O/U 127.5 Over
Money CAL +350 / ASU -500
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAL win
Actual ASU +8 132 Lost
Massey ASU -8.7 (+0.7)
Massey Totals 127.0 (+5.0)
Bradley-Terry 7%
Weighted B-T 6%
Efficiency Plus ML ASU -9.8 (+1.8) 131.1 (+0.9) 19%
Baseline Tuned ML ASU -8.5 (+0.5) 129.0 (+3.0) 20%
Baseline ML ASU -10.2 (+2.2) 130.8 (+1.2) 17%
Baseline Plus ML ASU -10.1 (+2.1) 131.5 (+0.5) 17%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 3, 2024 CAL 8166 ASU
Jan 1, 2024 ASU 7169 CAL
Mar 4, 2022 ASU 7144 CAL
Jan 3, 2022 CAL 7450 ASU
Jan 29, 2021 ASU 7268 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAL ASU
Overall 3-29 23-13
Conference 2-18 11-9
Home 3-14 10-5
Away 0-12 7-6
Neutral 0-3 6-2
Last 5 0-5 2-3
Streak L16 L1
Avg Pts For 58.3 71.1
Avg Pts Against 70.1 68.0
Massey -4.3 (#243) 8.0 (#70)
Bradley-Terry -1.78 (#324) 1.41 (#62)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.75 (#302) 1.74 (#66)
RPI 0.419 (#319) 0.567 (#60)
Shooting & Four Factors CAL ASU
FG% 40.7% 42.3%
3PT% 30.3% 32.1%
REB / G 31.4 37.7
OREB / G 8.5 11.2
AST / TO 0.73 1.18
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.5% 48.6%
TOV% 20.8% 17.6%
ORB% 25.9% 29.8%
FT Rate 22.2% 21.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.7% 45.6%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 20.4%
DRB% 70.0% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 21.8% 22.3%

Game Analysis

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