Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +350 ASU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -8.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -9.8 (+1.8) | 131.1 (+0.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -8.5 (+0.5) | 129.0 (+3.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -10.2 (+2.2) | 130.8 (+1.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -10.1 (+2.1) | 131.5 (+0.5) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | CAL 81 – 66 ASU |
| Jan 1, 2024 | ASU 71 – 69 CAL |
| Mar 4, 2022 | ASU 71 – 44 CAL |
| Jan 3, 2022 | CAL 74 – 50 ASU |
| Jan 29, 2021 | ASU 72 – 68 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-9 |
| Home | 3-14 | 10-5 |
| Away | 0-12 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L16 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 68.0 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#243) | 8.0 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#324) | 1.41 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#302) | 1.74 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#319) | 0.567 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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